Putin, on the Ritz

It’s been quite the busy summer for Syria and it’s civil war. A near stalemate of the past year suddenly becomes unimportant when chemical weapons were recently proved to have been used. The ante just shot up with the UN, United States, and Russia chest puffing and bicep flexing. This game of brinkmanship is all about whose bluff will be called first.

The US wants to go in and help the resistance, but doesn’t want to help overthrow Basha al-Assad. This in itself seems like a paradox by trying to keep both sides playing fair in their civil war, but not offer either side too much of an advantage. Congress in particular, and our citizens in general, have no desire to invtervine in another foreign skirmish. Only France wants to assist US in missle strikes, which is hardly a coalition. Obama had to make good on his “red line” quip about chemical weapons, but finds himself with a hand of 2 and 4, off-suit. We are a very reluctant world police.

The UN Security Council, with permanent members Russia and China, will not authorize any force against Syria with a unanimous vote. Even when the UN’s weapon inspectors found that sarin gas was used, they could not verify 100% that the Assad regime had used it. This only keeps the entire security council in limbo. They could certainly enforce something, but whatever it is would be far less than what is necessary to be of any actual importance. The UN has a hand of 10 pair, off-suit.

…..and in steps Putin. If not for Secretary Kerry’s off-the-cuff mention of Assad giving up all of Syria’s chemical weapons to prevent an attack by the US, Putin would find himself still marginalized. But now, he’s upped the ante considerably by convincing Assad to go along with a new UN mandated plan for Syria to account for all its chemical weapons by next month, and to start having them all destroyed starting next year. As much as I am not a fan of the Vlad and how he runs Russia with a vice-like grip, he pulled an amazing comeback with this compromise to the US and the UN. It also shows how powerless Assad is when it comes to dictating anything regarding the fate of his country right now. Russia’s hand show a pair of Kings, same suit.

In some respects, Putin’s diplomacy here saved Obama from a potentially crushing failure to convince Congress to authorize a strike (which he legally does not have to do, but is playng nice considering). Even if another country did attempt to strike against the Assad regime, it would have been ugly regardless. While I feel terrible for the people of Syria and its neighboring countries who have hundreds of thousands of refugees, it really is a problem for Syria and Syria alone to handle.

If it was only a question of morals and ethics to strike, then we should do it. But like anything when dealing with international politics, the devil is in the details, and no matter how high-grounded our intentions might be this would have come back to bite us in the ass many fold. And thanks to George W. Bush, and good will we had for being a respected world police force was squandered in 2003.

The suffering will continue. But I really hope that Vladimir Putin is sincere in his word.